MBA CREF 2026: Early Innings of a Recovery

For Gantry, MBA CREF is the capstone of the CRE finance conference season that kicks off with CREFC and NMHC and represents the true jumping off point to begin the work of 2026.

Gantry’s MBA CREF meetings with our correspondent insurance companies, affiliate lenders and industry peers were both productive and optimistic as we forecast 2026. Overall, economic growth remains positive although many agree that some stressors are emerging. Real estate is performing well, the rate climate consistent, and lender allocations are holding or increasing with deals getting done. There is confidence in the fundamentals, but uncertainties remain, including the potential for further geopolitical or policy disruptions. With discussions also including the advent of the age of AI and the post pandemic evolutions of workstyle, lifestyle and asset performance, this year’s MBA CREF could be summed up with two overarching themes:

1. Stability in the rate climate has helped normalize market conditions for both refinance and asset trades. New loan originations are returning to pre-volatility levels. Last year saw a 27% year-over-year production increase according to the Mortgage Bankers Association with expectations for a further 27% increase in 2026. The refrain is not higher for longer anymore; it’s now more accurately stable for longer. 

2. The early days of AI adoption and the massive wave of proposed data center development will either amount to a massive disruptor that marks the beginning of a new era for humanity or is creating a bubble of epic proportions. Time will tell. Discipline will be key.

Highlight considerations include:

• The challenge in today’s market is not debt liquidity; it’s equity availability. Amortized maturities are finding attractive options to refinance. Bridge options are abundant for assets still in transition. This year’s wave of maturities is real but manageable.

• Many loans will need fresh equity to right size debt service to successfully refinance. Sponsors are choosing to transact again as extensions run out on carry-over loans, and equity seeks to exit with programmatic expectations, motivating sales.

• A steepening yield curve continues to favor shorter term debt options, so we expect borrowers and lenders leaning into five-year and bridge loans this year. Still, there are compelling longer term permanent options with flexibility for conservative requests.

• Abundant debt liquidity far exceeds the pool of requests. Lenders are competing. Different deals make sense for different lenders, and they compete knowing the strong market dynamics. It is critically important in this cycle to survey a full spectrum of options to select the best vehicle and position the potential debt appropriately.

• The case for office improved dramatically over 2025 as lenders worked through the troubled loans on their books. There are viable options again for originations on properties that reflect a new basis with occupancy meeting necessary DSCR. 

• Since most lenders face heavy competition for their preferred multifamily, industrial, and retail allocations, alternative asset classes like student housing, senior housing, self storage, and manufactured housing are becoming popular in pursuit of yield.

• Agencies will be aggressively deploying their capital this year with increased caps but will be hard pressed to meet their allocation bandwidth and stressed on workflow. They will be offering loans meeting their affordability criteria their best terms.

• Insurance lenders are competing on spread, streamlined underwriting, forward rate lock, and more personalized servicing. They can also offer participation equity for permanent loans and can stretch their conservative LTVs as a result.

• CMBS is on track to see as much production in the first two months of 2026 as was placed in all of 2025. It’s a non-recourse option with some hoops to jump through but does offer maximum proceeds and unique options, like interest only underwriting.

• Banks are back as active originators and underwriting new loans again, offering attractive fixed and variable rate programs including construction. They are a little wider on spreads but competing with prepayment flexibility and interest only options.

• Debt funds will be active in the year ahead. A significant amount of capital was amassed to pursue distress that has not materialized at meaningful levels. Many of these funds are turning to debt acquisition or origination with an eye to ownership. 

• Many lenders are reaching their allocation limits for data center financing. They are still financing pre-leased data center projects featuring credit tenants, confident in a permanent takeout at completion. Spec plays are maxing out.

• Banks will play a key role in financing data center projects and are perhaps best suited to underwrite loans in the space. Their suite of business lines serving hyperscalers frees up funding sources outside traditional real estate underwriting.

• AI is working its way into commercial real estate and will play a transformative role in the year ahead. Consensus is that AI in these early stages will focus on scaling task driven efficiencies, with increased productivity freeing up time for strategic thinking.

• Overall, expectations are for the 10-year to range from 4-4.5% in the year ahead, with the MBA forecasting an average of 4.2%. With approximately $875 billion of maturing loans coming due in 2026, delinquencies are historically low but rising, and a crop of these maturities are the end of extensions for dated loans.

Gantry had a strong showing at this year’s conference, with all our national production teams represented. We would love to continue the conversation. Reach out to any of our offices and one of us will take the big picture and apply it to your specifics. Liquidity is creating opportunities that meet the moment. There are plenty of relevant insights to cover.